March 17, 2011
Just about
everything written and said about petroleum’s latest price spike substantiates
the punditocracy’s grotesque ignorance about energy. But it would be tough to
top the cant offered earlier this month by Roland Martin, billed as “a dynamic
and engaging journalist who offers a fresh perspective for the 21st century.”
In a
CNN commentary that could have been penned by any left-wing, moderate, or
neoconservative commentator, Martin railed against “our crack-like dependence
on oil,” which leads “us down the road of agony and despair.” “[P]olitical
leaders,” he fumed, “have no courage to own up to the special interests and gas
lovin’ Americans and say, ‘Dammit, enough! We can’t move forward like this!’”
Let’s skip the
“enlightened politicians should force citizens to do the right thing”
paternalism and focus on the two-part myth most persistently spread by energy
simpletons. The nation, they aver, is unapologetically addicted to oil that is
primarily supplied by bloodthirsty dictators, pampered monarchs, and nutbar
theocrats.
Contrary to
the specious tale interminably recited by lazy pundits, petroleum is not
guzzled, in ever-increasing amounts, year after year. On several occasions
during the last couple of decades -- and always in response to price hikes --
individuals and businesses have cut back. They’ve conserved, boosted
efficiency, and found cheaper (and frequently, less-polluting) substitutes.
Energy
fusspots don’t know it, but two once-common applications of oil have been all
but eliminated in the United
States.
In
the 1970s, January consumption of heating oil averaged 99 million barrels. By
the 2000s, average January demand had plunged to 26 million barrels, a drop of
73 percent. (And no, American winters weren’t 73 percent colder in the
‘70s.) Many homeowners switched to natural gas and electricity for warmth. The
relative loss of population in the Northeast, the region that burns the most
heating oil, also contributed to the decline.
Electric
utilities’ use of petroleum has imploded at a speedier clip. In 1978, 365
million megawatthours were generated by oil-based liquids such as gasoline,
diesel, and kerosene. Three decades later, the fuels generated 87 percent
fewer electrons.
Hasn’t our
overall oil thirst intensified? Yes, but not in a way alarmists understand. The
quarter-century between 1982 and 2007 is a sound timeframe to examine, since it
was a period of tremendous economic growth. In real terms, Gross Domestic
Product rose from $7 trillion to $13.2 trillion -- an impressive surge of 89
percent. Yet during the “go-go ‘80s,” the SUV-embracing ‘90s, and George W.
Bush’s apocalyptic reign, America
became more petroleum-efficient. Oil consumption grew by 35 percent --
less than half GDP growth. The story was nearly the same for gasoline use: It
increased, but by half the rate of economic expansion.
As for
“dangerous dependency” on baleful foreigners, the nation that provides the most
crude to the United States
is ... the United States.
Where domestic drilling stops, Canada
is the first to step in. Almost
a quarter of imports are supplied by our friendly neighbor to the north. Mexico
is also a significant source. In
2009, the U.S. bought more crude from African
countries than it imported from the
entire Persian Gulf.
(Most of the Middle East’s black gold heads to Asia.)
It’s
impossible to predict the future, but a strong case can be made that within our
lifetimes, not only will America’s
oil demand drop sharply, but it will be met by a shrinking share of imports. An
aging population, greater telecommuting options, and the popularity of
higher-MPG vehicles will curtail gasoline purchases. The election of energy
realists to Congress and the White House will open areas now off-limits to
exploration and extraction. Even without help from Washington, transformative advances in
technology are making crude easier to access. According
to the Associated Press, some experts believe that by 2015, fields in North Dakota, Colorado, Texas, and California
“could yield as much as 2 million barrels of oil a day -- more than the entire Gulf of Mexico produces now.”
However
unlikely, if the worst-case scenario spun by peddlers of conventional wisdom is
true, and the era of cheap petroleum really is over, the transportation sector
will transition to something else. Clean, abundant natural gas is the logical
choice. (Electric cars are a possibility, if battery performance is
dramatically boosted. Hydrogen
makes some pols swoon, but it’s a pipe dream.)
There’s no
denying that expensive gasoline is maddening. But killer prices at the pump are
no reason to listen to fact-free, ain’t-it-awful lectures from people who can’t
be bothered to analyze a single table of energy statistics.
D. Dowd Muska (www.dowdmuska.com) writes about government, economics, and technology. Follow him on Twitter @dowdmuska.
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